Yesterday I joked in my blog title that ‘investing is sooooo easy’.
The market reminded a lot of people by the close that ‘investing is hard’.
At the open yesterday, Apple was up another 4 percent and Tesla was up almost 20 percent. These moves are fun but they are not sustainable. Here is a picture of the Tesla day as the market closed:
Yesterday was very likely some sort of short term top and possibly much more serious top for a lot of technology stocks. I hope I am wrong.
Here is an eye popping data point on the Nasdaq move from yesterday:
A few weeks ago I changed my Twitter handle to ‘frothy’. Last week I changed it to ‘very frothy’ and by Friday to ‘SPAC SPAC SPAC’. The Stocktwits sentiment has been off the charts silly bullish for a month. My read of the data was consistently at 9 to 1 bullish messaging for at least a week. Leading up to the COVID-19 panic and crash in March I was seeing record highs of 6-1.
This has been one hell of a strange year in the markets because of the pandemic, and as I said yesterday, with the FED acting like a cash canon anything can happen with stocks.
My process is to take it all in manage risk as we go.
I am further on the defensive with stocks as of yesterday.