If I woke up from a 2020 Coma today and you showed me a chart of the Nasdaq I would have guessed that Apple cured cancer. It turns out Eastman Kodak was hired to cure COVID.
If I woke up from a Coma today and you showed me the headlines of 2020 and asked where the Nasdaq would be I would guess 4,000.
Here are the indexes this year (I substituted Nasdaq 100 for the Nasdaq which is 90 percent of what interests me day to day and now up 27 percent year to date):
This is why I love investing. You have to go beyond the headlines and noise and position for the future.
I was very confident we would see Nasdaq 10,000 the last 5 years, but the road to get here was not smooth.
The seeds for Nasdaq 20,000 and beyond are being planted at an accelerating pace post the COVID-19 outbreak. March was horrifying and the news does not seem to be getting any better. But, the bad news does not show up in the pitch decks I am getting the last few months.
The difficulties to be faced in hiring, training, motivating and executing in a COVID-19 world are now being thought through more clearly and there is data that is encouraging some incredible people to begin again.
I mentioned a couple weeks ago on this blog that the decks and pitches I was receiving were amazingly good the last couple of months and the quality is still improving.
It makes sense to me.
Great people with great careers at great companies that have great visions would rather start fresh than work inside even the best organizations that have to deal with the hiring, training, motivating and executing (at scale) of hundreds and thousands of people.
A great salesperson, recruiter, marketer etc will look much different in a zoom world than a face to face world. People are moving and the money is now moving quickly as well.
In 1987 the adage we traders and investors thought was cool was ‘Greed Is Good’.
I believe 2008 killed the coolness of ‘Greed Is Good’.
You may not like it, but 2009 was the beginning of ‘Disruption Is Good’.
COVID-19 only accelerated the importance of this new mantra to great founders, employees and investors.