December 15th, 2015

How far can the market fall?

Macro Charts recently observed that S&P 500 DSI is turning down from an overbought extreme. Historically, that has led to either sharp corrections or a prolonged period of choppiness.

In light of these conditions, I have been asked about downside equity risk. Is this the start of a significant downdraft? How far can stocks fall from current levels?

I answer these question in the context of secular leadership change. The Big Three market leadership themes in the latest bull cycle has been US over global stocks, large cap growth over value, and large caps over small caps. Transitions from bull to bear phase act to cleanse the excesses of the previous cycle. Until we see definitive signs of leadership changes, it may be too early to call a market top just yet.

From that perspective, we can see that the relative performance of US against global stocks is consolidating sideways after an uptrend; growth beating value, but pulling back; and small caps still lagging large caps after a brief episode of better relative performance.

The full post can be found here.
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