RealMoney columnist Helene Meisler asked rhetorically in an article where her readers thought we are in the equity sentiment cycle. She concluded that the market is in the "subtle warning" phase, though she would allow that the "overt warning" phase was also possible.
I agree. This retreat is acting like the start of a major pullback. The S&P 500 recently violated its 50 day moving average (dma). Past major pullbacks that began with 50 dma breaks were marked by the percent of S&P 500 bullish on point and figure charts plunging below 50%. To be sure, this does not assure us of a significant downturn, though it represents a sufficient though not necessary condition for one.
Two weeks ago, I discussed the magnitude of market weakness (see How far can the market fall?), with the caveat that those were not targets, but estimates of downside potential. This week, I outline some technique on how to spot a market bottom.
The full post can be found here.