December 15th, 2015

Time to de-risk

Preface: Explaining our market timing models
We maintain several market timing models, each with differing time horizons. The "Ultimate Market Timing Model" is a long-term market timing model based on the research outlined in our post, Building the ultimate market timing model. This model tends to generate only a handful of signals each decade.

The Trend Asset Allocation Model is an asset allocation model which applies trend following principles based on the inputs of global stock and commodity price. This model has a shorter time horizon and tends to turn over about 4-6 times a year. In essence, it seeks to answer the question, "Is the trend in the global economy expansion (bullish) or contraction (bearish)?"

My inner trader uses a trading model, which is a blend of price momentum (is the Trend Model becoming more bullish, or bearish?) and overbought/oversold extremes (don't buy if the trend is overbought, and vice versa). Subscribers receive real-time alerts of model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts are updated weekly here. The hypothetical trading record of the trading model of the real-time alerts that began in March 2016 is shown below.


The latest signals of each model are as follows:
  • Ultimate market timing model: Sell equities*
  • Trend Model signal: Neutral*
  • Trading model: Bearish*
* The performance chart and model readings have been delayed by a week out of respect to our paying subscribers.

Update schedule: I generally update model readings on my site on weekends and tweet mid-week observations at @humblestudent. Subscribers receive real-time alerts of trading model changes, and a hypothetical trading record of the those email alerts is shown here.

Subscribers can access the latest signal in real-time here.


Time to be cautiousThis is an out-of-sample application of my Asset Allocation Trend Model signals to a model portfolio. If the Trend Model is bullish, the model portfolio will take a 80% position in SPY (stocks) and 20% position in IEF (bonds), neutral at 60% SPY and 40% IEF, and bearish at 40% SPY and 60% IEF. As the chart shows, the model portfolio has been able to achieve equity-like returns over the test period with balance fund-like risk.


The Trend Model's signal was upgraded to neutral from bearish on May 15, 2020 and it has remained in neutral ever since. Recent developments have caused it to turn more cautious. Here is why.
The full post can be found here.


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