December 15th, 2015

Something for everyone

Mid-week market update: The Presidential Debate last night was painful to watch. After the debate, different broadcasters conducted instant polls of who won the debate. The CNN poll showed that 60% believed that Biden had won, and 29% thought that Trump had won. The Fox poll showed that 60% thought Trump had won, and 39% thought Biden had won.

Lol! There was something for everyone.

In reality, the debate probably didn't change many minds, and the market's perception of electoral risk was also largely unchanged. My own survey of SPY's at-the-money option implied volatility shows that while implied volatility had fallen, the shape of the curve is unchanged. The early November election spike is still there, and risk remains elevated until mid-December.


For equity traders focused on market direction, there is also something for both bulls and bears.

The full post can be found here.


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