December 15th, 2015

The momentum vs. seasonality dilemma

I have some good news and bad news. The good news is the option market isn't as concerned about the prospect of a contested election. The chart below shows the history of the term structure of at-the-money implied volatility (IV). The latest readings shows that IV spikes just after Election Day, and deflates slowly afterward. The bad news is it took a -1.9% decline in the S&P 500 to invert the term structure to create this condition.

The full post can be found here.

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